JOHANNESBURG – A former senior World Trade Organisation (WTO) official has raised the alarm over South Africa’s trade relations with the United States, warning of looming tariff hikes that could cripple the country’s access to one of its biggest export markets.
Trade policy expert Johann Human said South Africa is on the brink of being priced out of the US market unless urgent steps are taken to respond to Washington’s concerns over what it deems unfair trade practices.
Starting from 1 August, South African exports could face a blanket 30% tariff hike, on top of existing sectoral increases. Steel and aluminium duties have already doubled from 25% to 50%, with additional levies now extended to appliances such as fridges and stoves.
“The US has listed South Africa among 20 countries targeted in its aggressive new trade strategy,” Human said, adding that further penalties could follow due to Pretoria’s political alignment with BRICS. According to him, US policymakers are considering an extra 10% duty specifically for BRICS nations — potentially pushing total tariffs to 40%.
“There’s no ambiguity here. The Americans are not bluffing. These measures are real and imminent,” he warned.
On top of tariff concerns, Human flagged non-tariff barriers cited in Washington’s latest National Trade Estimate Report. These include policies such as black economic empowerment (BEE), local content requirements, and sanitary standards that the US sees as discriminatory or restrictive.
“South Africa has been told repeatedly that these policies are problematic. But instead of engaging meaningfully, Pretoria has dismissed the concerns as inaccurate,” he said.
Human believes this approach is unsustainable and that the consequences could be far-reaching. “Without addressing these issues, our exports become less competitive. We’ll lose market share — and jobs.”
He criticised South Africa’s lack of diplomatic presence in Washington, noting that the country has not appointed a new ambassador after the last envoy left prematurely. “That absence sends a poor signal. It looks like we’re not serious about fixing the relationship.”
When asked if alternative markets could cushion the blow, Human was doubtful. “You don’t replace the US market overnight. Others, like Vietnam and Indonesia, are already locking in deals with the Americans. We’re standing still.”
He pointed to Canada’s recent move to protect its own steel industry from Chinese dumping as an example of proactive trade defence. “They’re building legal and institutional mechanisms. We need to ask if South Africa is ready to do the same.”
With less than two weeks before the tariff hike takes effect, Human urged Pretoria to start urgent negotiations. “We need to act now or risk being pushed out of the global trading system.”
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