Farmers in South Africa are increasingly feeling the weight of climate change, with growing fears that food insecurity could worsen dramatically over the next two decades if urgent interventions are not made. Projections now warn of a potential 50% drop in agricultural production by 2050, placing millions at risk.
More than 18 million South Africans—about 21% of the population—already face food insecurity. New studies show the situation could deteriorate as changing weather patterns reduce rainfall, raise temperatures, and introduce erratic conditions that disrupt farming cycles.
Maize, the country’s staple crop and a primary food source for lower-income households, is becoming more difficult and expensive to grow. Recent data suggest that maize yields are now 25% more variable, and prices have spiked by 30%—trends linked directly to climate-related stress on farms.
Roscoe van Wyk, a research fellow at Stellenbosch Business School, has called for a shift in agricultural policy. He believes the farming sector must integrate climate adaptation into its enterprise development strategies if South Africa is to secure adequate, affordable, and nutritious food for its citizens.
Speaking during a recent policy roundtable, Van Wyk said the agricultural sector offers the strongest return on investment for poverty reduction compared to industries like mining or manufacturing. Historical evidence, he explained, shows that boosting agricultural productivity leads to wider economic benefits and job creation.
The government’s own targets—particularly the National Development Plan’s goal of creating one million new agricultural jobs by 2030—are at risk unless concrete support for rural farming communities is scaled up. Van Wyk noted that poor households, which spend a significant portion of their income on food, are the hardest hit when prices rise. His research shows that a mere 1% increase in food prices can lead to a 20% decline in household welfare.
The cumulative effect of Covid-19 and climate change has reversed much of the post-apartheid progress in fighting poverty. According to Van Wyk, the agricultural sector is now facing not just long-term shifts like temperature rise, but also frequent extreme events such as floods and prolonged droughts, which damage crops, destroy livestock, and disrupt supply chains.
Despite South Africa’s population growth over the past two decades, crop production has not kept pace, creating a widening gap between supply and demand. Van Wyk warned that without improvements in productivity, food insecurity will deepen, especially in rural areas where poverty is most concentrated.
He argued that large-scale commercial farming and smallholder agriculture both need tailored support. Expanding access to credit, land, and training could allow many to lift themselves out of poverty through farming, he said, while bridging the inequality gap and boosting employment.
Van Wyk also proposed a mentorship model where established farmers support new entrants, combined with better implementation of existing agricultural policies. He said this could drive both productivity and sustainability, especially if small-scale farmers are equipped with the tools and knowledge to adapt to a warming climate.
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