Mbabane- Eswatini’s vulnerability to drought has come under fresh scrutiny after the United Nations warned that the world has entered an era of global water bankruptcy.
The warning comes as the country heads into the 2026/27 season, with a strong El Niño already established and expected to intensify towards the end of the year.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), there was a near-100 per cent probability that El Niño would persist through February 2027.
El Niño is associated with significant shifts in rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, although the WMO has cautioned that the strength of the phenomenon alone cannot determine its impact on individual countries.
National and regional climate forecasts will therefore be critical in determining what the coming season could mean for Eswatini.
The latest warning from the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) highlights the broader pressure being placed on the world’s freshwater resources.
In Its 2026 report, the institution states that societies are consuming and degrading freshwater faster than natural systems can replenish it, leaving many rivers, lakes, aquifers and wetlands struggling to return to their historical conditions.
“Many regions are living beyond their hydrological means,” said Professor Kaveh Madani, Director of UNU-INWEH and lead author of the report.
The report estimates that about four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month every year.
It further states that around 70 per cent of major aquifers are experiencing long-term decline, while approximately 410 million hectares of natural wetlands have disappeared over the past five decades.
For Eswatini, the warning is particularly significant given the economic damage caused by the last major drought.
The World Bank estimates that the 2015–2016 drought cost the Eswatini Government about 19 per cent of its annual expenditure, equivalent to more than seven per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Another prolonged period of water stress could therefore have consequences extending beyond households and agriculture to businesses and government finances.
The global water crisis also raises questions about how Eswatini manages and protects the water resources it already has.
Building additional dams alone may not be sufficient to address future shortages if the natural systems that replenish and regulate water continue to deteriorate.
Protecting rivers, wetlands and catchment areas, reducing water losses, strengthening groundwater monitoring and improving water efficiency in agriculture are among measures that could help strengthen the country’s resilience.
Rainwater harvesting could also provide an additional source of water during periods of scarcity.
With El Niño expected to persist into early 2027, the coming months will therefore be important for Eswatini’s water security, particularly as the country seeks to avoid a repeat of the severe economic consequences experienced during the 2015–2016 drought.
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