Mbabane – Global financial markets have entered 2026 under heightened uncertainty, as rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over monetary policy stability in the United States unsettle investor confidence.
Speaking during the Nedbank Business Watch Market Analysis segment, hosted by Notsile Sithole, Treasury Sales Manager at Nedbank Eswatini, Thoba Gamedze said renewed uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve has introduced volatility across global markets.
The US Department of Justice is reportedly investigating the Federal Reserve Chair, raising concerns about the perceived independence of the central bank from political influence.
“Markets are reacting more to sentiment than fundamentals at this point,” Gamedze said, “Any suggestion that the Federal Reserve’s independence is being compromised creates nervousness among investors globally.
This uncertainty has driven investors towards safe-haven assets, with precious metals recording strong gains. Gold reached historic highs, trading above US$4,600 per ounce, while silver gained near US$90, with anticipation that it could soon surpass US$100.
According to Gamedze, rising geopolitical threats, such as upheaval in Iran, instability in Venezuela, and the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with a falling US currency, have boosted demand for precious metals.
“These factors are pushing investors away from riskier assets and into gold and silver,” he said.
For Eswatini, while not a major producer of precious metals, developments in commodity markets remain significant due to close trade and financial links with South Africa. The South African Rand has strengthened on the back of rising commodity prices, benefiting from the country’s mineral-based export profile.
“The Rand is trading around 16.3 to 16.4 against the US dollar, which is relatively strong,” Gamedze noted, “while higher prices for gold, palladium and other metals support export revenues and improve regional currency performance, which has spillover effects for Eswatini.”
However, concerns are growing over the potential escalation of global trade tensions. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on countries trading with Iran, raising fears of a renewed and broader trade war.
“If trade tensions escalate further, especially involving energy and key commodities, the global economic impact could be significant,” Gamedze warned.
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